Tell your Numbers To Shut Up

by Shawn Lackie

The title of this week’s piece comes from a classic baseball book, written in 1970, by then Seattle Pilots pitcher Jim Bouton. It is a CLASSIC. If you have never read it, do yourself a favour and set aside some time to do so.

What he was saying was loosely based on a line from a Peanuts comic strip which said, “Tell your statistics to shut up.” At any rate, it was credited to his manager, at the time, Joe Schultz. Now, there was a character.

What this is all leading to is, you can pretty much do with numbers whatever you want. I used to play with TV audience numbers, at the CFL, and instead of talking about an overall decline in viewership we would highlight one of the age categories which showed an increase. Especially if it was the vaunted 18-34 category everyone was chasing. So, in a roundabout way, this is all leading to the numbers being floated by CREA, OREA and the local Real Estate boards.

Needless to say, they are constantly reporting sales are UP UP UP because that is what they want you to believe. You see, the more you report positive news, the more people are supposed to think things are rosy and sellers are back to making off like bandits. Except, that’s just not the case.

I want to know, at what point do the local boards understand this and start reporting what is actually happening? Don’t hold your breath on this one. What they believe, they want YOU to believe.

The most insane story, recently posted, asked, if we were now on the cusp of another seller’s market. I have heard some crazy things over the years but this one tops them all.

Need proof? Take a look around your neighbourhood and see how long listings have been posted. You see, they don’t want to face the harsh reality. Prices have been dropping. Listings are up and sales have been slow for at least two years. This on the heels of some of the craziest years seen in real estate in decades.

The madness was crazy and seemed to be never ending. Bidding wars, crazy prices being paid, and everyone was trying to predict when the madness would end. Seemingly, it was never. I kept telling buyers to hold off a few months, or even years, and things would come back to earth.

That really was evident this past spring. I had buyers looking and we settled on a home they really liked. Except, the seller thought it was 2019 and kept asking for more. At one point, I had to say to the listing agent, we were done with this silly behaviour. They finally settled and have moved into their new home.

The thing about comparing months/years is, it's a nebulous situation. We often hear month over month and then they change to year over year, to suit their needs. So, when you see a headline which reads, “Sales up 6 percent Over Last Month,” that could very easily mean 6 percent over 0 sales. So, of course, they will blow the horn at the amazing increases. Don’t always believe what you read, unless you are willing to dig in deeper.

Like Jim Bouton once said “Tell your Numbers To Shut Up.”